Survivor Blood vs. Water: Pre-Season Predictions Part 1

With the 27th season of Survivor less than two weeks away, I thought I would sit down and give my thoughts on the 20 castaways that make up the cast of Survivor: Blood vs Water.  If you’re interested in what I think about the 83 new twists that are being introduced in this season, feel free to read about them here.  Before I jump right into my predictions, I would like to take a moment to say that when I first started hearing about the names back in May, I was incredibly disappointed with the group CBS had pulled together.  In particular, the fact that there are three returnees from Survivor: One World (which is  definitely towards the top of the list of worst Survivor seasons ever) really had me scratching my head, and the last three months I was really concerned about what this season was going to look like.  However, I failed to remember that each of these returning castaways were bringing along a family member, and that those family members could be even better characters than their designated loved-one.  If you take the time to watch some of the CBS.com interviews, or if you watch the interviews the pairs did with Dalton Ross from Entertainment Weekly the day before the game started, you’ll see that there are some potentially great characters in the loved ones that are on this season. While this realization has taken me from incredibly disappointed to just mildly intrigued, this season will have to work double time to impress me like Survivor: Philippines did (the only season in the last three years that I would consider “great”).

Now, without further ado, here are my predictions for the first ten players of the cast, which I’m sure will embarrass me come December.  In order to save the lives of people reading this, and because I know I’m going to babble, I’m splitting this post up into two parts, and I’ll get to the other ten players in the next week.  Instead of going through the contestants one at a time, I’ll talk about them in pairs, because let’s be honest, none of these pairs are ever going to seriously turn against each other.

As a disclaimer, these predictions are being made without any help from the spoiler community and based on the assumption that both tribes will do well at challenges, that there will not be any additional twists in the season, and that production doesn’t meddle too much in the game.  Basically, these predictions are almost certain to be wrong, but I have a good time speculating at least!

TYSON APOSTOL & RACHEL FOULGER (DATING)

Little known fact about Tyson:  he is my all time biggest Survivor man crush.  True story.  Since he first appeared on Survivor: Tocantins, I have admired the way that he could take an incredibly embarrassing situation and make it into comedy gold.  His reputation was slightly tarnished after his stint in Survivor: Heroes vs Villains where he essentially voted himself out of the game in what I still say is the craziest Tribal Council in the show’s history (take that, Survivor: Caramoan episode in which Phillip was voted out), but I still like him.  Tyson has a few things working for and against him this season.  The first is his physical strength, which is both a pro and a con.  Since there’s Redemption Island this season, his challenge skills could easily give him an Ozzy-like run if he’s voted out, but it will also make him much more likely to be a target early so he can be weakened while on RI.  The second thing is that he is one of the few returnees to have a fairly solid friend playing the game with him in Aras.  Unfortunately, Aras has the exact same strength that Tyson does, so they may be lumped together as a duo and forced to compete against each other early at Redemption Island to try eliminate at least one of them.  Tyson’s third strength is his social ability, and he’s always been able to fit into a number of different groups.  I think he would have had a great shot at winning Heroes vs Villains had he not screwed up and voted for the wrong person the Tribal he was booted.  Hopefully the third time’s a charm for this charmer, but I unfortunately see him as a pre-jury boot.  He just has too many things working against him.  I’ll be happy if I’m wrong though.

He’s playing the game this season with (or should I say against?) his girlfriend Rachel, who was probably cast this season for two reasons.  The first:  she’s very very pretty.  The second:  she’s an easy target for the first few weeks.  For those who have been paying attention to the way production casts this show, they normally throw in a few easy boots in the cast who also happen to be very very pretty so the “interesting” characters will have a little room to shine (i.e. Angie from Philippines, Hope from Caramoan).  I unfortunately think Rachel is intended to fit that slot, and from what I’ve seen, she’s already put a fairly big target on herself, because she’s made it known to the other contestants before the game starts that she’s terrified of bugs, leaves, and nature in general.  This didn’t hurt Cirie back in her first season, but I just don’t think that Rachel is going to have the same social skills Cirie had to shadow her fear of nature.  So for Rachel, I expect to see an early boot, definitely pre-jury.

ARAS BASKAUSKAS & VYTAS BASKAUSKAS (BROTHERS)

Here is one of the returning players I’m most excited to see alongside a potentially great Survivor newbie.  Aras (pronounced “Odd-us” for those of you who don’t listen to Rob Has a Podcast) has long been one of the most underrated Survivor winners.  He won the twelfth season, Exile Island, where he was overshadowed by two legitimate Survivor legends in Terry Dietz and Cirie Fields. However, Aras showcased in his season that you don’t have to be the best physical competitor or the best strategist or even the most likable person to win the game.  You just have to be the most well-rounded at all those things, and I would dare say that Aras is in the top two or three most well-rounded Survivor winners ever (maybe only behind Parvati Shallow and Kim Spradlin).  And these are all reasons why Aras will probably not last long in this game.  Again, as much as I would like to see him play and do really well, we have to look at history.  There have been four male winners to return and play Survivor before now (Richard Hatch, Ethan Zohn, Tom Westman, and JT Thomas).  With the exception of Hatch, each of those four were targeted almost immediately because they were winners who also happened to do well challenges.  Hatch was eliminated early because he was seen as too much of a strategist.  Aras is in both categories, and this group of returnees is going to want him out quickly because he’s so strong. As I mentioned with Tyson, he’ll be lumped together with his friend and forced to duel to the death.  I do think Aras has a slight chance of lasting longer than Tyson though, because he has proven himself as a great social player, and I think his team would get rid of Tyson before him.  I’m hoping he and Tina decide to align, but I don’t see many other people other than Tyson wanting to get together with him.  Because of this, I’ll say that Aras is going to be one of the first members of the jury.

Aras’ brother, Vytas, seems to have many of the same qualities as Aras, though Vytas has certainly experienced quite a bit in his life.  A recovering heroin addict, Vytas has proven himself to be able to overcome a number of huge obstacles that get in his way.  Like Aras, he is a yoga instructor, which is a great profession to have going into Survivor because it requires physical and emotional balance and an innate calmness.  Vytas also seems to just be an incredibly likable guy and possibly the most intelligent of the newbies (no offense to the rest of you).  As I mentioned with Aras, Survivor requires the perfect balance of physical, social, and strategic game, and if any of the newbies has those three qualities on wrap, it’s Vytas.  Mark my words, if a loved one winds up winning this game, it’s going to be Vytas.  I’m going to be bold and say that he makes it the final four, but I think he’s going to come up just short of a victory.  I do expect him to be a great character though, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he plays.

RUPERT BONEHAM & LAURA BONEHAM (MARRIED)

Blurgh.  Just looking at this picture makes me want to throw up a little.  Like most of America, I was fully on the Rupert bandwagon back in season 7 when we were first introduced to the gruff and tough pirate of the Pearl Islands, but something happened to him in between All-Stars and Heroes vs Villains.  I think he started believing a little bit of his own hype, and by the time he came back for season 20, he was almost unbearable to watch in his self-righteousness.  Three years after his last appearance, Rupert has been knocked down a few pegs, having run an unsuccessful bid for the Governor of Indiana (seriously, it happened) and losing the fan-favorite vote at the end of HvV to Russell Hantz.  I really hope he comes into this game more humble than he was before, but based on his interviews, he might be cockier than ever.  Again, he hopes to show America that a good guy can win the game, he doesn’t like mean people or bullies, blah blah blah.  Listen, this guy will never be able to win the game.  Ever.  This is a game that requires a great deal of self-awareness, and I think that’s the one thing that Rupert lacks the most.  I would love to hang out with him outside of the game, but I don’t think anyone could stand to play with him anymore.  I also have this very strange feeling that he’s going to make a sacrifice to try and save/comfort Laura, either by taking her place on Redemption Island, or by quitting if she is eliminated.  Either way, I don’t see this ending well for him.  Unlike Boston Rob, it’s going to take a lot more than four times to get Rupert a legitimate million dollar check (not that blood money that the fans threw at him after All-Stars).

Rupert’s wife Laura is also playing this season.  I kind of like Laura, if for no other reason than the fact that she puts Rupert in his place.  However, Laura is going to be playing the game on a different tribe as Rupert, and she is an older female.  This is never a good thing when you’re playing with a group of new players.  Since both tribes are going to make a first impression vote on the first day, I think Laura will almost unanimously be voted out before she gets the chance to play because she’s going to be the oldest person on her tribe.  And while she might last a few duels or be saved by Rupert once or twice, no way is she making it to jury.

CANDICE CODY & JOHN CODY (MARRIED)

Candice Cody (formally Woodcock), was one of the biggest head scratchers of the cast, and she was the only person I had not previously heard was going to be on this season before the cast was officially announced two weeks ago.  Probst announced on EW.com this was because Candice and John were not originally asked to be a part of this cast, and they were a last minute replacement for RC Saint-Amour of Survivor: Philippines when her father had to drop out due to medical issues, and they flew out to location the day before filming was scheduled to start.  I mention this story for a few reasons:  1)  Candice and John had the least amount of time to sit down and strategize with each other when compared to the other teams who had a week or two before hand to actually think about the game and how pairs would affect it.  2)  They didn’t have any time to make any pre-game alliances that I can all but guarantee you happened with each of the other pairs.  3)  They were clearly tired from traveling during their pre-game interviews, while the rest of the pairs had at least a little bit of rest before the game was supposed to start.  When you add in the fact that Candice isn’t exactly well known in the Survivor community and that she admitted before her stint on HvV that she doesn’t go to any events with Survivor alums, and I just don’t see her having a chance to win this season.  I do think there is a possibility that she will find herself in between two warring alliances of old school and new schools players on the returning players tribe, but we all remember how she handled being caught between two factions during HvV and when she mutinied in Cook Islands.  She’s probably just going to miss out on the jury.

John, on the other hand, has a bit of a better shot at getting far, because his tribe is going to need him for the the challenges.  I can easily see a bro’s alliance dominating the loved-ones tribe between Vytas, John, Brad and Hayden.  However, the bros are probably going to cut John first because he’s a little too all-American, and because his loved one is known for being wishy-washy.  I see John being voted out early to mid-jury.

MONICA CULPEPPER & BRAD CULPEPPER (MARRIED)

A lot of people saw Monica’s name on the list of returning players and asked themselves, “Which one was Monica?”  I’ll admit, she’s probably the one returning player in the history of the show that I actually had to stop and ask that question about.  Heck, I even remembered Francesca Hogi when the majority of the Survivor community had forgotten of her splendid quarrel with Phillip Sheppard.  After going through my memory banks, I finally remember who Monica was, and my memory awarded her with a resounding “Eh.”  Looking back on Monica’s five episodes during Survivor: One World, she actually had the potential to be a great player in any other season, but she was handed a few too many twists and turns because of the crazy One World structure, and she was voted out by Colton’s army just before his fantastic fall from grace.  It will be very interesting to see how she handles this season where she’s the least experienced of the returnees and one of only two people to never experience making it to the merge (the other being Colton).  I see her slipping through the middle, finding herself in an alliance with the new school players (Colton, Kat, Laura, and maybe Candice), but never really making a big move to help her win the game.  Mid-jury.

For anyone who was wondering why Monica was cast, look no further than her husband, Brad.  Brad is a retired NFL player (he played for Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago), and he currently works as an attorney.  He’s the closest thing this season has to a celebrity player (though I think more people know Rupert, Tina, and Gervase, but that’s super-fan me talking), and he’s certainly going to get some heat from the newbies because of his background.  However, if Brad manages to get his tribe to look past his successes, he could become one of the greatest villains this show has ever seen.  He was the only newbie to take more attention than their returnee counterpart, and he seemed to revel at the thought of backstabbing, lying, and playing the game the way it was meant to be played.  While I’m sure a lot of people will compare him to Gary Hogeboom and/or Steve Wright, I see more similarities between him and Russell Hantz than any of the former-former NFL players to appear on the show.  I hope he makes it far, because it would be great to see the token celebrity of the season get portrayed as a villain.  As I said with John’s post, I think Brad will find himself in an alpha-male alliance and make it to the merge, but also like John, I think he’ll be too much of a threat for anyone to take him to the end, so he’ll probably be an early juror.

 

So there’s the first half of the cast.  I’m 2800 words in and, I haven’t even gotten to the most interesting returning and new players on the list yet!  Stay tuned to this blog for the second part to the post and to see who I think is going to win Survivor: Blood vs. Water.