Survivor Blood vs. Water: Pre-Season Predictions Part 2

Welcome to Part 2 of my Survivor: Blood vs Water prediction post.  For those of you who missed the first part, don’t fret, it’s right here!  As a point of clarification that came up after my first post, when I say that a player will or will not make the jury, this is under the assumption that the jury phase of this season is going to start at the final 11 as it did the last two seasons.  If I say a person is not going to make the jury, that means I think they’re going to be one of the first nine people to be voted out of the game.  Everyone else is either in the top 11, or in the final 3.  To clarify things more, I’m going to put a complete list of my choices at the end of this post.

I won’t stall any longer.  Here are the final 10 castaways for the season.  Read on to find out who my picks for the final three are, as well as who I think is going to win this season!

COLTON CUMBIE & CALEB BANKSTON (ENGAGED)

Well, we’re opening part 2 with a bit of a doozy, aren’t we?  As you can see, Colton Cumbie, the notoriously bigoted gay Republican baddie who was medivaced from Survivor: One World, is back this season.  I could have sworn Probst said we would never see this guy again. Darn Probst and his technicalities.  Anyway, we’re stuck with him for a least two episodes because of the Redemption Island twist, but I am actually really intrigued to see how he will play this season.  Knowing that he was hated after playing his first season had to be a kick in the gut for him, and I would like to think he may have learned a thing or two about how to behave as a human being.  More so than any other returning contestant, I’m torn on how I think Colton will do.  On one hand, I think he’s in a good position going into the game because he is on a tribe with two other people from his original season, and Monica even expressly said in her pre-game interview on TVGN that she planned on aligning with Colton right off the bat because it’s better to play with the devil you know than the devil you don’t.  Also, his fiancé Caleb (who I will discuss more below) seems like such a good guy, and I think having an even-keeled influence like Caleb will prevent a number of potential outbursts that may come up.  On the other hand, Caleb is going to be on the other tribe, and his reputation is by far the worst out of any person who has played the game more than once, with Russell Hantz being the only possible exception, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if his tribe decided to vote him out in the first-impression vote.  So Colton put me in a bit of a bind here.  I’m going to say that Colton will not make the jury, and I only say this because I think other people are poised to do a better job than he is this season.

So why do I think Colton came back this season despite a not-so-ringing endorsement from Probst?  If I had to guess, I would say Caleb is the reason Colton is returning for this season.  Had Caleb applied for Survivor: One World instead of Colton, I can almost guarantee you he would have been cast instead.  In fact, Caleb probably could have made it very, very far in that season, or at the very least would have made things difficult for Kim Spradlin’s easy victory.  I would go as far to say that Caleb may be the single most likable new player this season based on his interviews.  Caleb is an outdoorsman and he hunts and fishes, so while he’s far from the gay-guy stereotype that has plagued many a reality show in recent years (*coughAndyBB15cough*).  This will serve him well with the male members of his tribe, all of whom seem to be pretty macho in nature.  Also, if past seasons are any indication, gay men easily align with the women of their tribes.  I don’t know if this is just in the world of Survivor or if it says something about society in general, but it is definitely a trend on this show.  Because of this, he is a great position to go any way he wants and vote for whomever he’d like.  I think he’s going to try and align with the guys of his tribe, and once a merge hits, he’ll turn against them and align with the returning players.  As I mentioned with Aras and Vytas in Part 1, Caleb has a great mix of social, physical, and strategic skills that will help him go far in this game.  His only downfall may be his relationship with Colton, but if his tribe can look past that, he’s golden.

KAT EDORSSON & HAYDEN MOSS (DATING)

This is a fun couple to talk about.  Let’s start with Kat.  She’s yet another Survivor: One World contestant who probably wouldn’t have been asked to play the game a second time if it weren’t for her interesting loved-one.  Kat is probably best known for three things from her season:  1)  Acting like a party girl during spring break and repeatedly jumping in the water during her second immunity challenge.  2)  Not knowing what appendicitis is.  3) Telling her tribe how much she enjoyed watching blindsides, only to be blindsided herself.  In other words, Kat is not known as the best Survivor player ever.  However, she is a barrel of laughs, and I think that will get her far in the game, because at least she’s entertaining to be around.  On top of that, she’s on a tribe with two people she has played the game with, and they will help protect her for at least a few votes.  In many of her interviews, she talked about how she was planning on floating through the game.  While the floater strategy may work on Big Brother, it rarely is rewarded on Survivor.  She’ll make it to jury, but she’ll be cut when people realize the easy ride she’s taking.

Speaking of Big Brother, for the first time in Survivor history, a former Big Brother player will be playing this game.  Not only is Kat’s boyfriend, Hayden, a BB alumn, but he’s also a well-known BB winner, having won the 12th season of the show as a part of the infamous Brigade alliance.  It seems to me that Hayden is hoping to bring a similar strategy to this game that helped him win Big Brother, and he could easily form a Brigade 2.0 alliance with the male members of his tribe.  Having watched Hayden play his game on the Big Brother live feeds, I would say his greatest strength is his personality.  He’s incredibly charming without being overly smarmy or fake, and I know there were several people from his season who still talk to him on a regular basis because he is just a nice guy.  This will help him a lot in this game, especially on his tribe where there’s many personalities that are either very abrasive or very passive.  The obvious question with him will be if his BB win will hinder his chances of getting far because he will be seen as a threat.  I think there are too many unknown entities on his tribe in Brad and John that people would vote out for being a threat before they voted for him, and as you know, I think both Brad and John will make it to the jury.  So, I think Hayden has a very good chance of getting far in the game.  He’s still probably going to be on the jury, but he’ll get close to the finals.

LAURA MORETT & CIERA EASTIN (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

I need to preface this part of the post by saying that I’ve thought for many years that Laura Morett should come play the game for a second time.  Had Russell Hantz not been a wiz at finding immunity idols during her first season, I think Laura had a very good chance of winning that year, and I’m fascinated to see how she’ll play a second time knowing how important idols are to the game now.  There was a big controversy that came up during her original season of Survivor: Samoa where she accused production of helping Russell find idols, which obviously helped him get farther in the game, and I’m shocked to see her on this cast because of that controversy.  All that being said, there are some things that irritate me about Laura this time around.  The first is that she seems to have a strange sense of entitlement about her this time around that I don’t remember her having the first time, and it almost seems as though she feels she deserves a place on this season.  The second is that she is clearly still bitter about her first season, and she can’t help but bring it up in every interview she has done so far.  The third is the end of the clip featuring her and her daughter that Dalton Ross posted on EW.com where SHE TELLS TYSON TO HIS FACE THAT HE’S NOT FUNNY!!!  Who does that in a game that is about social politics?!  More importantly, who says that to Tyson, who is in the top 15 funniest Survivors of all time?!  Knowing that this conversation will eventually happen in the game does not bode well for her standings.  She might find herself in a good alliance towards the beginning, but I don’t see a situation where her tribe would want to keep her around for long if she has that kind of an attitude.  Pre-jury boot.

Laura’s daughter, Ciera, is a strange one.  I have seen two separate interviews where Probst has stated that Laura is on this season because Ciera is so great, and Probst even predicted that Ciera would make it very far in the game.  Not only that, but my boy Malcolm Freberg from Survivor: Philippines and Survivor: Caramoan (Seriously Malcolm.  You’re amazing.  Hit me up sometime.) picked her as his number 1 seed in his power rankings for the season.  Maybe I’m crazy, but I do not see a chance on God’s green Earth that Ciera is going to get anywhere close to winning this game.  During two different interviews, Ciera started crying because she missed her children, and at that point, the game hadn’t even started.  Once she’s torn away from her mom, there’s no way she’s going to be emotionally stable enough to last more than a week without breaking.  I understand that her strength is that she had to grow up very fast having had her first daughter when she was 17, and I can’t imagine how much life experience she has because of that, but that doesn’t mean she has a grasp of who she is as a person like Malcolm and Probst suggested.  If anything, this girl is probably having an identity crisis because she’s away from her children who have completely shaped her adult life.  Ciera seems like a really nice girl, and probably someone I would like to meet and have a nice conversation with.  But as I mentioned, I just can’t see her winning, especially with the make-up of her tribe.  I see another pre-jury boot in her.

GERVASE PETERSON & MARISSA PETERSON (UNCLE AND NIECE)

Ever since Survivor: All-Stars, I have said the one person I wanted to see play the game for a second time was Gervase Peterson from Survivor: Borneo, the show’s first and most famous season.  In a season where there very few people who truly understood what the game was about, Gervase was the one person other than Richard Hatch who knew that it wasn’t going to be strength or survival skills that would get him to the end:  it would be his people skills.  Had he caught on a little sooner to the alliance part of the game and/or started off on the other tribe, I think Gervase could have won that first season, and I’ve always wanted to see how he would play with the knowledge he gained from watching other seasons.  And now, 13 years after he last played the game, we will have the chance to see him play again.  The producers were genius in bringing him back this time around, and it wouldn’t surprise me if many of the players this season look at him as a celebrity, maybe even more than Brad.  More than any other player, I’m excited to see how he plays because of the reasons I mentioned before.  My only concern about Gervase is that while he says he’s studied the game since his season and that he knows all the strategies that have given others the win, he also mentioned there were returning players this season who he did not know.  This is not a good thing.  He either doesn’t know the show as well as what he’s been saying he does, or he is saying that he didn’t take the opportunity to make any pre-game alliances, which, as I mentioned with Candice in Part 1, will hurt him.  However, Tina and Aras have both expressed interest in aligning with him, and I think he has enough friends on his tribe to get him to a position where he could charm his way to the end.  While I do think we’ll see him make it to the finale, I don’t think he’s going to be in the final tribal council.  Now that he’s playing the game again, how about we try to get Greg Buis out there for a second time, huh producers?

Gervase is playing the game with his niece, Marissa.  Out of all the people he could have possibly chosen, why would he choose his niece?  He has said in all his interviews that he chose Marissa because she’s like a young, female version of him.  If that’s the case, a young version of Gervase as he played in Borneo would be eaten alive in the game nowadays.  Other than that little tidbit, Gervase didn’t give Marissa much of a chance to talk during any of their interviews, and the only other thing I learned about her is that she is a self-proclaimed party girl.  Marissa’s 21-years-old, and young girls have not done very well on recent seasons of this show, with the exception of Sophie Clarke of Survivor: South Pacific, but Sophie’s demeanor was not that of a bratty young girl.  While she might get along with Kat, I don’t think Marissa will be given the opportunity to play on the same tribe as Kat, because she’ll be a pre-jury boot.  Looking at last season and the way the Fans tribe played will probably be a good indicator of how this season will end up:  the young women of the loved-ones tribe will be picked off unceremoniously, and the final few members of their tribe will be the big, burly men, give or take or a stray that can sneak to the end.  Speaking of which:

TINA WESSON & KATIE COLLINS (MOTHER AND DAUGHTER)

I know I’ve been started these with the returning player first, followed by the loved-one, but I’m going to start with Katie here.  Katie is Tina Wesson’s daughter, and she was actually seen during Survivor:  The Australian Outback during the loved-one challenge that season when she was just 13-years-old.  Half her life later, she’s playing this season with her mom.  I like Katie a lot, and she’s absolutely my favorite of the girls on the loved-one tribe.  Katie’s spunky and an adventurer, having moved away from her family to New York City so she could be around more exciting people.  She’s also expressed her love of traveling and outdoor activities, which I’m sure will help her in this game.  While all the other newbie girls this season are very girlie and seem to be home-bodies and/or haven’t gone away from their family that much, Katie is used to being on her own, and I think she would have done very well on a season with all first-time players.  Katie will make it farther in the game than any other girl from her original tribe.  In fact, I think she’ll be the only girl from her tribe to make it the the jury, as the boys will let her stick around, not thinking she’ll be a threat come the merge.  While I don’t see Katie winning this season, I do think she will do well, and she may have a good chance of making it to the finals if people don’t try to separate her and her mom.  Katie’s one weakness is that she is the only newbie to say they would be willing to vote their loved-one out, and in a game where you can rarely stand to trust anyone, turning her back on the one person she absolutely could trust would be a big mistake.  Her best bet is to trust in her mom, and let her take her as far along as she can.

Finally, we have Tina Wesson.  Tina will playing playing the game for the third time after having won Survivor:  The Australian Outback (the second and most watched season of Survivor ever) and after being the first person voted off of Survivor:  All-Stars (I still hate you for that, Jenna Lewis).  Because of this, Tina could find herself being in the Francesca Hogi club of being voted out first twice, or in the prestigious Sandra Diaz-Twine two-time winners club.  Let’s look back at a little bit of history first, shall we?  Tina during her first season played a masterful game, manipulating the biggest, strongest, most likable guy on her season into taking her all the way to the end, where she edged out a win by one vote against him.  She tried to recreate her strategy by aligning with Ethan Zohn during All-Stars, but that was a season where everyone was eager to vote out the previous winners, so she was voted out immediately.  Since All-Stars, seasons with returning players have gone very differently, most notably during Survivor: Heroes vs Villains, where two previous winners made it to the final tribal council.  The person who won that season, Sandra, was a previous winner who was very underestimated going into the game, and she got the win because she was likable and because she proved that she had been underestimated the whole time.  John Cochran used a very similar strategy last season, where he was incredibly underestimated, but he swept the jury vote because of his likability and by proving everybody wrong.

I think history will repeat itself for Tina this season.  Coming into the game, Tina has two people on her tribe that have expressed interested in aligning with her already in Rupert and Aras, a few other people  will probably want to align with her once they realize the make-up of the tribes, and she has a very capable ally on the other tribe in her daughter that will help get her to the merge.  After the merge, she won’t be a target, with the alpha-males being a shield against her.  Tina has also shown that she is prone to aligning herself with strong young men, and there are many to choose from this season.  Her southern charm will also help her in the game as it did the first time, where she was one of the most likable people on an already very likable cast.  Her strategic mind is also fantastic as she proved during The Australian Outback, a season where people were still figuring out what exactly the Survivor strategy was.  On top of everything, she is in incredibly good shape for a 52-year-old woman, and she’s probably one of the best female swimmers this season.  All these things added up, I predict that Tina Wesson will be the oldest woman to ever win Survivor and the second two-time winner in Survivor history.  Funny enough, I predicted Tina to win the first time she played the game when I was just 11 years old.  I hope she can help me keep my street-cred 13 years later.

Now that you’ve read my reasonings, here’s a recap of how I think the season will go:

Pre-jury Boots:
Candice
Ciera
Colton
Laura B.
Laura M.
Marissa
Rachel
Rupert
Tyson

Jury Members:
Aras
Brad
Gervase
Hayden
John
Kat
Katie
Monica

Final Three:
Caleb
Tina
Vytas

The winner of Survivor: Blood vs Water:  Tina Wesson

Those are my picks, and I’m sticking to them.  I’ve had a fairly decent record the last few seasons of the show, where I chose Cochran, Malcolm, Cheslea, and Coach to win, and all of them either won or made it to the final 3 their season.  We’ll see how I do here, and feel free to make fun of me for every choice I get wrong this season, of which I’m sure I’ll have many.  So now, you tell me:  Who do you think will win this season, and who am I completely off-base about?

Survivor Blood vs. Water: Pre-Season Predictions Part 1

With the 27th season of Survivor less than two weeks away, I thought I would sit down and give my thoughts on the 20 castaways that make up the cast of Survivor: Blood vs Water.  If you’re interested in what I think about the 83 new twists that are being introduced in this season, feel free to read about them here.  Before I jump right into my predictions, I would like to take a moment to say that when I first started hearing about the names back in May, I was incredibly disappointed with the group CBS had pulled together.  In particular, the fact that there are three returnees from Survivor: One World (which is  definitely towards the top of the list of worst Survivor seasons ever) really had me scratching my head, and the last three months I was really concerned about what this season was going to look like.  However, I failed to remember that each of these returning castaways were bringing along a family member, and that those family members could be even better characters than their designated loved-one.  If you take the time to watch some of the CBS.com interviews, or if you watch the interviews the pairs did with Dalton Ross from Entertainment Weekly the day before the game started, you’ll see that there are some potentially great characters in the loved ones that are on this season. While this realization has taken me from incredibly disappointed to just mildly intrigued, this season will have to work double time to impress me like Survivor: Philippines did (the only season in the last three years that I would consider “great”).

Now, without further ado, here are my predictions for the first ten players of the cast, which I’m sure will embarrass me come December.  In order to save the lives of people reading this, and because I know I’m going to babble, I’m splitting this post up into two parts, and I’ll get to the other ten players in the next week.  Instead of going through the contestants one at a time, I’ll talk about them in pairs, because let’s be honest, none of these pairs are ever going to seriously turn against each other.

As a disclaimer, these predictions are being made without any help from the spoiler community and based on the assumption that both tribes will do well at challenges, that there will not be any additional twists in the season, and that production doesn’t meddle too much in the game.  Basically, these predictions are almost certain to be wrong, but I have a good time speculating at least!

TYSON APOSTOL & RACHEL FOULGER (DATING)

Little known fact about Tyson:  he is my all time biggest Survivor man crush.  True story.  Since he first appeared on Survivor: Tocantins, I have admired the way that he could take an incredibly embarrassing situation and make it into comedy gold.  His reputation was slightly tarnished after his stint in Survivor: Heroes vs Villains where he essentially voted himself out of the game in what I still say is the craziest Tribal Council in the show’s history (take that, Survivor: Caramoan episode in which Phillip was voted out), but I still like him.  Tyson has a few things working for and against him this season.  The first is his physical strength, which is both a pro and a con.  Since there’s Redemption Island this season, his challenge skills could easily give him an Ozzy-like run if he’s voted out, but it will also make him much more likely to be a target early so he can be weakened while on RI.  The second thing is that he is one of the few returnees to have a fairly solid friend playing the game with him in Aras.  Unfortunately, Aras has the exact same strength that Tyson does, so they may be lumped together as a duo and forced to compete against each other early at Redemption Island to try eliminate at least one of them.  Tyson’s third strength is his social ability, and he’s always been able to fit into a number of different groups.  I think he would have had a great shot at winning Heroes vs Villains had he not screwed up and voted for the wrong person the Tribal he was booted.  Hopefully the third time’s a charm for this charmer, but I unfortunately see him as a pre-jury boot.  He just has too many things working against him.  I’ll be happy if I’m wrong though.

He’s playing the game this season with (or should I say against?) his girlfriend Rachel, who was probably cast this season for two reasons.  The first:  she’s very very pretty.  The second:  she’s an easy target for the first few weeks.  For those who have been paying attention to the way production casts this show, they normally throw in a few easy boots in the cast who also happen to be very very pretty so the “interesting” characters will have a little room to shine (i.e. Angie from Philippines, Hope from Caramoan).  I unfortunately think Rachel is intended to fit that slot, and from what I’ve seen, she’s already put a fairly big target on herself, because she’s made it known to the other contestants before the game starts that she’s terrified of bugs, leaves, and nature in general.  This didn’t hurt Cirie back in her first season, but I just don’t think that Rachel is going to have the same social skills Cirie had to shadow her fear of nature.  So for Rachel, I expect to see an early boot, definitely pre-jury.

ARAS BASKAUSKAS & VYTAS BASKAUSKAS (BROTHERS)

Here is one of the returning players I’m most excited to see alongside a potentially great Survivor newbie.  Aras (pronounced “Odd-us” for those of you who don’t listen to Rob Has a Podcast) has long been one of the most underrated Survivor winners.  He won the twelfth season, Exile Island, where he was overshadowed by two legitimate Survivor legends in Terry Dietz and Cirie Fields. However, Aras showcased in his season that you don’t have to be the best physical competitor or the best strategist or even the most likable person to win the game.  You just have to be the most well-rounded at all those things, and I would dare say that Aras is in the top two or three most well-rounded Survivor winners ever (maybe only behind Parvati Shallow and Kim Spradlin).  And these are all reasons why Aras will probably not last long in this game.  Again, as much as I would like to see him play and do really well, we have to look at history.  There have been four male winners to return and play Survivor before now (Richard Hatch, Ethan Zohn, Tom Westman, and JT Thomas).  With the exception of Hatch, each of those four were targeted almost immediately because they were winners who also happened to do well challenges.  Hatch was eliminated early because he was seen as too much of a strategist.  Aras is in both categories, and this group of returnees is going to want him out quickly because he’s so strong. As I mentioned with Tyson, he’ll be lumped together with his friend and forced to duel to the death.  I do think Aras has a slight chance of lasting longer than Tyson though, because he has proven himself as a great social player, and I think his team would get rid of Tyson before him.  I’m hoping he and Tina decide to align, but I don’t see many other people other than Tyson wanting to get together with him.  Because of this, I’ll say that Aras is going to be one of the first members of the jury.

Aras’ brother, Vytas, seems to have many of the same qualities as Aras, though Vytas has certainly experienced quite a bit in his life.  A recovering heroin addict, Vytas has proven himself to be able to overcome a number of huge obstacles that get in his way.  Like Aras, he is a yoga instructor, which is a great profession to have going into Survivor because it requires physical and emotional balance and an innate calmness.  Vytas also seems to just be an incredibly likable guy and possibly the most intelligent of the newbies (no offense to the rest of you).  As I mentioned with Aras, Survivor requires the perfect balance of physical, social, and strategic game, and if any of the newbies has those three qualities on wrap, it’s Vytas.  Mark my words, if a loved one winds up winning this game, it’s going to be Vytas.  I’m going to be bold and say that he makes it the final four, but I think he’s going to come up just short of a victory.  I do expect him to be a great character though, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he plays.

RUPERT BONEHAM & LAURA BONEHAM (MARRIED)

Blurgh.  Just looking at this picture makes me want to throw up a little.  Like most of America, I was fully on the Rupert bandwagon back in season 7 when we were first introduced to the gruff and tough pirate of the Pearl Islands, but something happened to him in between All-Stars and Heroes vs Villains.  I think he started believing a little bit of his own hype, and by the time he came back for season 20, he was almost unbearable to watch in his self-righteousness.  Three years after his last appearance, Rupert has been knocked down a few pegs, having run an unsuccessful bid for the Governor of Indiana (seriously, it happened) and losing the fan-favorite vote at the end of HvV to Russell Hantz.  I really hope he comes into this game more humble than he was before, but based on his interviews, he might be cockier than ever.  Again, he hopes to show America that a good guy can win the game, he doesn’t like mean people or bullies, blah blah blah.  Listen, this guy will never be able to win the game.  Ever.  This is a game that requires a great deal of self-awareness, and I think that’s the one thing that Rupert lacks the most.  I would love to hang out with him outside of the game, but I don’t think anyone could stand to play with him anymore.  I also have this very strange feeling that he’s going to make a sacrifice to try and save/comfort Laura, either by taking her place on Redemption Island, or by quitting if she is eliminated.  Either way, I don’t see this ending well for him.  Unlike Boston Rob, it’s going to take a lot more than four times to get Rupert a legitimate million dollar check (not that blood money that the fans threw at him after All-Stars).

Rupert’s wife Laura is also playing this season.  I kind of like Laura, if for no other reason than the fact that she puts Rupert in his place.  However, Laura is going to be playing the game on a different tribe as Rupert, and she is an older female.  This is never a good thing when you’re playing with a group of new players.  Since both tribes are going to make a first impression vote on the first day, I think Laura will almost unanimously be voted out before she gets the chance to play because she’s going to be the oldest person on her tribe.  And while she might last a few duels or be saved by Rupert once or twice, no way is she making it to jury.

CANDICE CODY & JOHN CODY (MARRIED)

Candice Cody (formally Woodcock), was one of the biggest head scratchers of the cast, and she was the only person I had not previously heard was going to be on this season before the cast was officially announced two weeks ago.  Probst announced on EW.com this was because Candice and John were not originally asked to be a part of this cast, and they were a last minute replacement for RC Saint-Amour of Survivor: Philippines when her father had to drop out due to medical issues, and they flew out to location the day before filming was scheduled to start.  I mention this story for a few reasons:  1)  Candice and John had the least amount of time to sit down and strategize with each other when compared to the other teams who had a week or two before hand to actually think about the game and how pairs would affect it.  2)  They didn’t have any time to make any pre-game alliances that I can all but guarantee you happened with each of the other pairs.  3)  They were clearly tired from traveling during their pre-game interviews, while the rest of the pairs had at least a little bit of rest before the game was supposed to start.  When you add in the fact that Candice isn’t exactly well known in the Survivor community and that she admitted before her stint on HvV that she doesn’t go to any events with Survivor alums, and I just don’t see her having a chance to win this season.  I do think there is a possibility that she will find herself in between two warring alliances of old school and new schools players on the returning players tribe, but we all remember how she handled being caught between two factions during HvV and when she mutinied in Cook Islands.  She’s probably just going to miss out on the jury.

John, on the other hand, has a bit of a better shot at getting far, because his tribe is going to need him for the the challenges.  I can easily see a bro’s alliance dominating the loved-ones tribe between Vytas, John, Brad and Hayden.  However, the bros are probably going to cut John first because he’s a little too all-American, and because his loved one is known for being wishy-washy.  I see John being voted out early to mid-jury.

MONICA CULPEPPER & BRAD CULPEPPER (MARRIED)

A lot of people saw Monica’s name on the list of returning players and asked themselves, “Which one was Monica?”  I’ll admit, she’s probably the one returning player in the history of the show that I actually had to stop and ask that question about.  Heck, I even remembered Francesca Hogi when the majority of the Survivor community had forgotten of her splendid quarrel with Phillip Sheppard.  After going through my memory banks, I finally remember who Monica was, and my memory awarded her with a resounding “Eh.”  Looking back on Monica’s five episodes during Survivor: One World, she actually had the potential to be a great player in any other season, but she was handed a few too many twists and turns because of the crazy One World structure, and she was voted out by Colton’s army just before his fantastic fall from grace.  It will be very interesting to see how she handles this season where she’s the least experienced of the returnees and one of only two people to never experience making it to the merge (the other being Colton).  I see her slipping through the middle, finding herself in an alliance with the new school players (Colton, Kat, Laura, and maybe Candice), but never really making a big move to help her win the game.  Mid-jury.

For anyone who was wondering why Monica was cast, look no further than her husband, Brad.  Brad is a retired NFL player (he played for Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago), and he currently works as an attorney.  He’s the closest thing this season has to a celebrity player (though I think more people know Rupert, Tina, and Gervase, but that’s super-fan me talking), and he’s certainly going to get some heat from the newbies because of his background.  However, if Brad manages to get his tribe to look past his successes, he could become one of the greatest villains this show has ever seen.  He was the only newbie to take more attention than their returnee counterpart, and he seemed to revel at the thought of backstabbing, lying, and playing the game the way it was meant to be played.  While I’m sure a lot of people will compare him to Gary Hogeboom and/or Steve Wright, I see more similarities between him and Russell Hantz than any of the former-former NFL players to appear on the show.  I hope he makes it far, because it would be great to see the token celebrity of the season get portrayed as a villain.  As I said with John’s post, I think Brad will find himself in an alpha-male alliance and make it to the merge, but also like John, I think he’ll be too much of a threat for anyone to take him to the end, so he’ll probably be an early juror.

 

So there’s the first half of the cast.  I’m 2800 words in and, I haven’t even gotten to the most interesting returning and new players on the list yet!  Stay tuned to this blog for the second part to the post and to see who I think is going to win Survivor: Blood vs. Water.

 

Whodunnit – 4 Weeks In…Why Am I Still Watching This?

Like Clue, but for stupid people.

Spoilers for the first four episodes of Whodunnit (and for Celebrity Mole: Yucatan) below.

In the fall of 2001, a show premiered on ABC that changed the face of reality television as we know it…except nobody really watched it. That show was called The Mole. I’ll just go out and say it: The Mole was the single best reality show to ever air on network television. Yes, I know, my friends who know how much I love Survivor, Big Brother, and The Amazing Race just collectively gasped enough to suck all the oxygen out of the atmosphere, but it’s true! The show was intelligent, it was fun, it had some of the greatest casts of any reality shows to ever air, and the first two seasons were hosted by Anderson freakin’ Cooper. Seriously, he used to host a reality show! Sure, it went off the rails a little with two celebrity seasons, and somehow Dennis Rodman managed to win the show once, but it was still better than most of what represents summer TV today. The basic premise of the show was that there were a number of players that competed in a series of tasks over the course of several weeks, each task worth a certain amount of money, and if the players won the task, the players won that money to be put into a group pot that the winner would take home in the end. However, the twist was that one of the players was hired by the producers to sabotage these tasks so the pot would stay relatively low. It was up to the players to decide who this “Mole” was, and their fate in the game depended on discovering the identity of the Mole. The winner was the person who was able to figure out who the Mole was and tracked his or her movements throughout the game the best. Sounds complicated? It was. But it was so much fun to watch and even more fun trying to figure out who the Mole was while sitting at home and seeing how strategies developed within a game like this.  Even though it was eventually canceled due to low ratings, it was the first time that someone created a reality show that proved the genre didn’t have to be completely mindless (which many believed it was in 2001).  Reality shows like Top Chef, The Joe Schmo Show, and even the first few seasons of The Apprentice owe a lot to this show for proving that point.

So, you all are looking at the title of this article saying, “Wait Chris, you said this article was about the new show Whodunnit on ABC, not a washed up show from over a decade ago. What gives?” Well, kind reader, thank you for asking. Whodunnit, which is four weeks into its run on ABC and was created by CSI creator Anthony Zuiker, is a retread of The Mole, only it sucks. Like, seriously, this is a horrible show, and so many of the elements from The Mole have been lifted, including a secret saboteur (in this case, a “murderer” who is killing the contestants one at a time) and a prize that depends on tracking the saboteur’s every move (the players stay in the game by figuring out how the murderer committed the crime). These elements have been dumbed down so much for the viewing audience, and the characters on the show are so dull, it came to the point that I would almost rather see if the entire Rock of Love bus would be smart enough to figure out how to read the clues given throughout the episode. All this being said, I’m still watching this show. And I kind of hate myself for it, but somewhere along the way, Whodunnit became entertaining. Let’s take an adventure to the Rue Manor and figure out how this happened, shall we?

The first episode saw thirteen strangers meeting together in a cushy Beverly Hills mansion called the “Rue Manor”. Amongst these strangers included Don the retired-homicide-detective-who-everyone-could-tell-was-an-ex-homicide-detective-yet-he-told-them-he-was-a-football-coach (such a reality show cliche, right?), Adrianna the super annoying TV Crime Reporter, Ronnie the incredibly scary bounty hunter, Sheri the former Rams cheerleader, and Melina the flight attendant who can’t make it through a sentence without crying. There, an incredibly stereotypical butler by the name of Giles greets the strangers and tells them they have been invited to play a game, but the details would be revealed later. Sheri the cheerleader drops her champagne glass, the strangers go to their rooms, and the next thing we know poor Sheri was flopping on the ground next to a broken fish tank, slowly being electrocuted. That’s right,Sheri…has been murdered!!! Why, you may ask? Was the killer upset that she broke an expensive piece of glassware? Was he or she picked on by cheerleaders in high school? We’re never told…but I suspect the killer is secretly a Tennessee Titans fan. I’m assuming Sheri was an actress hired by the producers to be the first person to die, because otherwise that would really suck if she came all the way out there to be eliminated in the first 15 minutes. Anyway, from that point on, Giles tells the players that they now must solve the crime of how Sheri was killed, and that the killer is amongst them…but they should not reveal the killer yet. Why must they wait to unmask the killer? Because it’s a 10 week show, not a made-for-TV movie.

The basic layout of the “game” is then set up from there. The players must divide themselves into smaller groups and search different locations to try to piece together how Sheri died. Some players go to the scene of the crime (that they all just saw a few minutes prior…but I guess they have short memories?), some go to the victim’s last known whereabouts, and some go the morgue to inspect the body (The morgue is conveniently located in the basement of the mansion. Maybe the killer hated alcohol in general and refurbished the wine cellar?). This is where we learned that the occupations of the players would come in handy in discovering different aspects of the murder. Why, Dana the cardiac nurse knows that a small metal object in the back of Sheri’s head means she died from a severed spinal cord! What’s that, Sasha the journalist? You know how to investigate locations for pieces of evidence based on your investigative reporting skills? How utterly contrived convenient! After going to these locations, the players reconvene with each other, where they can share what they saw if they so choose. In the first episode, alliances were clearly formed here as players chose to share information with some players but not others to try and eliminate some of the “threats” in the game. Finally, the players are all given a riddle by the killer to put one final piece of the puzzle together and explain how the murder happened, but these riddles basically amount to a scavenger hunt around the mansion that end up at the revelation of the “clue” (in the first episode, a trunk that had a crowbar and a slingshot in it), which again the players can choose to share or keep to themselves.

After all the clues are given, the contestants are quizzed on the specifics of the crime (in a disclaimer at the end of the episode, it was revealed the players are given a written test where they lay out the steps of the murder). Then comes my favorite part of each of the episodes. The players are led to a room in the mansion by some shady maids (They never talk or even fold clothes! What is their purpose?!), where they lay out how they think the crime is committed to the killer (who I assume is watching by the cameras the contestants look into?) in the most over-the-top way possible. I’m not sure if the players get style points from the judges if they tell their version of the crime more overly dramatic than another player, but my goodness, do these people know how to milk a story for screen time. It’s also in this room where the players reveal their choice for who the killer is. Why do they do this? No clue. I’m thinking maybe it’s a tie-breaker if two people give the same stories, but it’s obvious these players could care less about who the killer actually is at this point. While The Mole would give hidden clues to the identity of the Mole in every episode and show the players speculating who they thought the Mole was frequently, I think there’s maybe one confessional per episode where a player says who they think the killer is. Shouldn’t more attention be on this aspect? After all, it’s called Whodunnit and not Howdunnit. But I digress.

After the dramatic line readings, the players convene for a meal, where the killer reveals in a pre-written note read by Giles which player was the closest to figuring out the exact crime, exactly how the murder went down, and who was in danger of being killed next. That’s right. In most reality shows, players are voted out, the last team to arrive, or eliminated in a somewhat nice manner. Whodunnit kills their losers in a dramatic fashion. Each player is given a card that says either “Spared” or “Scared”. Those who receive a “Spared” card are safe for one more week, and those who receive a “Scared” card were the farthest off from figuring out the crime, and are marked for elimination. The player who did the worst is then killed, which sets off the next episode where the players have to discover how their former adversary was axed (or blown up, or set on fire, etc.). Some of the players are spot on in how the murder went down. Some, like the first person eliminated Dontae, are so far off they might as well have been trying to figure out who tailors Giles’ tuxedos. Speaking of Dontae…that poor fool. For some strange reason, even though he saw with his own eyes that Sheri had been hit with bullet in her spinal cord and knowing a slingshot was somehow involved, Dontae thought Sheri was killed by drowning in the fish tank. Seriously. I have no clue how he came to that conclusion, especially when the fish tank had shattered and could barely hold three goldfish. Anyway, Dontae clearly was the worst at figuring out the crime, he got a “Scared” card, and was rewarded by being set on fire and flinging himself into the pool (irony has clearly not been lost on the killer).

So, the first episode was pretty horrible, but had its redeeming moments in the ridiculousness that was Dontae. The second episode didn’t have anything. It was horribly boring, even when Adriana did her best to finagle her way into conversations no one wanted her to be a part of, and the “shocked” looks of the contestants when someone is killed was way too rehearsed to be entertaining at all. I almost gave up on the show about halfway through the third episode, but I stuck around to see the murder at the end. And then it happened. Dana and Don had been given their “Scared” cards and somehow made it through the night alive. At breakfast, the two of them were given raw steaks. Dana decided she would share with someone else, but Don wanted his own, and went off to the kitchen to cook the steak himself. And then, I’m not kidding…a flippin’ mountain lion came out of the laundry chute and attacked Don. Like with the great Kim Bauer cougar before them, a surprise big cat came to the rescue to make the show interesting. It was in this moment that I realized something about Whodunnit. I was taking the show way too seriously the first few weeks. This isn’t a murder-mystery drama. It’s a comedy!!! How else can you explain a mountain lion somehow getting into a Beverly Hills mansion or a contestant thinking a girl had drowned in a fish bowl? This was made by the same guy who gave us the single funniest character trait in the history of television and a ton of ridiculous one-liners, and his work should be treated accordingly.

After watching this week’s episode with this mindset, I am in a much better place. Giles has a tranquilizer gun laying around the mansion to get rid of the mountain lion! Dana, our cardiac nurse, somehow figured out that Don wasn’t killed by the cat, but by cyanide! The lion was a red herring! The killer called Giles and asked the players to go horseback riding, even though the killer was in the room with him! Seriously, this is comedic gold, people! If you plan on watching Whodunnit it, keep this in mind, and you will enjoy this show so much more. Who do I think the killer is? If it’s not Giles or the shady maids (it would be hilarious if they’ve just been messing with the players the whole time), I’d say it’s probably Melina who cries after getting every “Spared” card, and not a single person has suspected her up until this point. She’s the only one whose profession doesn’t help her in solving murders, so I bet she’s an actress of some sort hired to cry during every elimination. But does it really matter at this point? I’m not watching the show to figure out the saboteur like I did with The Mole years ago. I’m watching for the same reason I watch Hell’s Kitchen: cheap, hilarious entertainment.